The Indo-Pacific Strategy and Implications for Pakistan

By: Hifza Komal

The Indo-Pacific region

The Indo-Pacific region has been regarded as the single most consequential region for America’s future. This region is spread from the West coast of the United States in North America to the Western shores of India in South Asia. The Indo-Pacific region includes the most populous state, the most populous democracy, the largest Muslim state, and half of the world’s population. It is home of the seven largest armies of the world and six states possessing nuclear weapons. This region has nine of the ten busiest seaports of the world, 60 per cent of the global maritime trade transiting through Asia and its one third passing through the South China Sea. The Indo-Pacific region accounts for the 60 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) and contributes the two-thirds of GDP. This region has the world’s largest economies China, Japan and the United States, and the fastest growing economies of India, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Nepal.

Importance of the Indo-Pacific region to the United States

The United States of America has five Pacific states; Alaska, Oregon, California, Hawaii, and Washington. Along with this, it has Pacific territories outside its borders; the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), American Samoa, Guam, and Wake Island. The United States has been trading with the Indo-Pacific region since the eighteenth century and has invested $2.3 trillion of two-way trade annually collectively more than China, South Korea and Japan. The United States sends quarter of its exports to the Indo-Pacific region and has increased exports to the double since last decade. This huge trade has been facilitated by the free and open trade routes

through land, sea, air, space, and cyber commons that form the contemporary global system.

The concept of Indo-Pacific strategy

The President of the United States laid the concept of Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) during the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference (APEC) in Hanoi, Vietnam in 2017. FOIP is based on three pillars; economics, security and governance. The United States has formulated the Indo-Pacific strategy after observing trends in the global political landscape. The rise of China in economic, political, and military terms in the twenty first century has defined the whole strategy of the Indo-Pacific region. The United States believes that China is confronting with more confidence and China is also willing to expand economic, political and military interests assertively.

Challenges to the Indo-Pacific States

The South China Sea has been in the state of confrontation by the Indo-Pacific region countries. China is militarizing the South China Sea by employing Para-military forces, placing anti-ship cruise missiles and long-range surface-to-air- missiles on the disputed Islands. The People’s Liberation Army of China has enhanced patrolling near Taiwan and Japan threatening the sovereignty of neighboring states. Additionally, China employs non-military tactics including economic tools during period of political tensions with countries that China alleges of harming its national interests. Other than that, military developments and coastal bases construction by China and illiberal and weak governments in the Indo-Pacific region are an utter cause of contention for the United States.

The United States’ efforts to strengthen India through Indo-Pacific strategy

The United States is broadening and strengthening partnerships with India to respond and balance to the increasing influence of China in the Indo-Pacific region. The strategic partnership between India and the United States has seen boost from the past two decades to build new partnerships within and beyond the Indo-Pacific region. India is a key ally of the United States in confronting China in the Indo-Pacific region. India and the United States share a similar outlook on the Indo- Pacific. The “Act East” policy of India is continuing to make significant security, developments, and economic investments to secure its interests in the Indo-Pacific region. The scope of defense trade between India and the United States has grown up to $16 billion in past ten years as the interests and security cooperation of both countries have expanded. Both States are engaging to cooperate in defense technology, co-production of defense systems, industry-to- industry ties and other opportunities for strengthening defense capabilities. Moreover, the United States is assisting India for the sustainment and modernization of military forces to tackle China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Increasing strategic partnership between the United States and India

The United States has managed to marshal India in the Indo-Pacific strategy eventually. The recent visit of the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken of the United States to India on July 28, 2021 pledged to expand multilateral security partnership keeping in consideration the growing influence of China in the region and bilateral cooperation in Afghanistan. The United States is sharing advanced military hardware and technologies and have also signed a major pact on October 27, 2020 that would provide India top-secret satellite data. The commitment of the United States towards absorbing the power of China has led to the establishment of 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in September 2018 between the United States and India. In June 2016, the United States gave India a unique status of “Major Defense Partner”. The designation of this status is to elevate the US-India defense partnership to a level that of the United States’ closest allies. A range of initiatives have been pursued by the United States with India to enable cooperation, interoperability, defense trade, technology sharing, and defense innovation. A significant development was noticed after the signing of Communication, Compatibility and Security agreement in 2018. This agreement has potential to develop military to military relationship, secure information sharing, and facilitating greater interoperability. Both States’ departments of Defense have intensified the complexity and frequency of military and other joint exercises. The United States and India aim to conduct tri-service exercises and collaborate on maritime security and other transnational issues to deter China in the Indo-Pacific region. The United States and India are also part of the Quad regional alliance with Japan and Australia, and China has opposed Quad by referring it an attempt to contain its ambitions .

Repercussions for Pakistan

However, the FOIP is purely China-centric, but the militarization and modernization of Indian forces and South Asian region particularly of India by the United States is not sustainable for the very existence of Pakistan and stability of South Asia. India has serious issues with its neighbor Pakistan notably on Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek and water distribution. It has been witnessed throughout the 70 years after the independence of India and Pakistan that both countries have fought full-scale wars in different periods. The further advancements and armament of India will yield bad repercussions for Pakistan .

Furthermore, India is spending hundreds of billions on acquiring modern military capabilities and various air defense systems without getting sanctions from the United States. The nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and India is aiming to enhance the nuclear stockpiles of the latter. Both states are collaborating in high-tech areas such as space and innovative technologies that would enable India to acquire sophisticated delivery systems as well as surveillance capability. The purchase of modern aircrafts and aircraft carriers by India is a matter of concern for Pakistan, because further armament of South Asia can create chaos. The continuous war-like situation on Line of Control (LOC) threatens the security of Pakistan. Moreover, the air defense systems of India would not allow Pakistan to retaliate in case of escalation. Pakistan cannot afford the disastrous conflicts with India now or ever, either.